Every remaining side's chances of winning the Champions League this season

Real Madrid v Manchester City - UEFA Champions League Round of 16: First Leg

We’ve now seen the 16 remaining Champions League clubs in knockout stage action.

Every side has played the first leg of their last-16 tie. Some already have one foot in the quarter-finals, some are already staring at elimination, while other ties are finely balanced.

So, who is going to win the competition?

Well, the data guys at FiveThirtyEight have it all worked out.

Their statistical model has worked out the percentage that each club has of, not only making the quarter-finals but each round after that and then eventually winning it.

Let’s take a look:

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16. Valencia (first-leg result: 4-1 loss away to Atalanta)

Chances of making quarter-finals: 4%
Chances of making semi-finals: <1%
Chances of making the-final: <1%
Chances of winning the competition: <1%

FBL-EUR-C1-ATALANTA-VALENCIA

15. Chelsea (first-leg result: 3-0 loss at home to Bayern Munich)

Chances of making quarter-finals: <1%
Chances of making semi-finals: <1%
Chances of making the-final: <1%
Chances of winning the competition: <1%

Chelsea FC v FC Bayern Muenchen - UEFA Champions League Round of 16: First Leg

14. Napoli (first-leg result: 1-1 draw at home to Barcelona)

Chances of making quarter-finals: 14%
Chances of making semi-finals: 4%
Chances of making the-final: <1%
Chances of winning the competition: <1%

SSC Napoli v FC Barcelona - UEFA Champions League Round of 16: First Leg

13. Tottenham (first-leg result: 1-0 loss at home to RB Leipzig)

Chances of making quarter-finals: 11%
Chances of making semi-finals: 4%
Chances of making the-final: 1%
Chances of winning the competition: <1%

Tottenham Hotspur v RB Leipzig - UEFA Champions League Round of 16: First Leg

12. Lyon (first-leg result: 1-0 win at home to Juventus)

Chances of making quarter-finals: 54%
Chances of making semi-finals: 11%
Chances of making the-final: 2%
Chances of winning the competition: <1%

FBL-EUR-C1-LYON-JUVENTUS

11. Real Madrid (first-leg result: 2-1 loss at home to Manchester City)

Chances of making quarter-finals: 10%
Chances of making semi-finals: 6%
Chances of making the-final: 3%
Chances of winning the competition: 2%

FBL-EUR-C1-REAL MADRID-MAN CITY

10. Juventus (first-leg result: 1-0 loss away to Lyon)

Chances of making quarter-finals: 46%
Chances of making semi-finals: 17%
Chances of making the-final: 6%
Chances of winning the competition: 2%

Olympique Lyon v Juventus - UEFA Champions League Round of 16: First Leg

9. Atletico Madrid (first-leg result: 1-0 win at home to Liverpool)

Chances of making quarter-finals: 46%
Chances of making semi-finals: 19%
Chances of making the-final: 7%
Chances of winning the competition: 2%

FBL-EUR-C1-ATLETICO-LIVERPOOL

8. Atalanta (first-leg result: 4-1 win at home to Valencia)

Chances of making quarter-finals: 96%
Chances of making semi-finals: 32%
Chances of making the-final: 9%
Chances of winning the competition: 3%

FBL-EUR-C1-ATALANTA-VALENCIA

7. Dortmund (first-leg result: 2-1 win at home to PSG)

Chances of making quarter-finals: 55%
Chances of making semi-finals: 25%
Chances of making the-final: 10%
Chances of winning the competition: 4%

Borussia Dortmund v Paris Saint-Germain - UEFA Champions League Round of 16: First Leg

6. PSG (first-leg result: 2-1 loss away to Dortmund)

Chances of making quarter-finals: 45%
Chances of making semi-finals: 24%
Chances of making the-final: 11%
Chances of winning the competition: 5%

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5. RB Leipzig (first-leg result: 1-0 win away to Tottenham)

Chances of making quarter-finals: 89%
Chances of making semi-finals: 43%
Chances of making the-final: 18%
Chances of winning the competition: 8%

Tottenham Hotspur v RB Leipzig - UEFA Champions League Round of 16: First Leg

4. Barcelona (first-leg result: 1-1 draw away to Napoli)

Chances of making quarter-finals: 86%
Chances of making semi-finals: 48%
Chances of making the-final: 23%
Chances of winning the competition: 11%

SSC Napoli v FC Barcelona - UEFA Champions League Round of 16: First Leg

3. Liverpool (first-leg result: 1-0 loss away to Atletico Madrid)

Chances of making quarter-finals: 54%
Chances of making semi-finals: 36%
Chances of making the-final: 22%
Chances of winning the competition: 13%

Atletico Madrid v Liverpool FC - UEFA Champions League Round of 16: First Leg

2. Bayern Munich (first-leg result: 3-0 win away to Chelsea)

Chances of making quarter-finals: >99%
Chances of making semi-finals: 67%
Chances of making the-final: 42%
Chances of winning the competition: 24%

Chelsea FC v FC Bayern Muenchen - UEFA Champions League Round of 16: First Leg

1. Manchester City (first-leg result: 2-1 win away to Real Madrid)

Chances of making quarter-finals: 90%
Chances of making semi-finals: 64%
Chances of making the-final: 44%
Chances of winning the competition: 27%

FBL-EUR-C1-REAL MADRID-MAN CITY

So, City are the favourites to win the Champions League despite never winning a European trophy previously.

They’ve certainly put themselves in a terrific position to progress to the last-eight with a win at the Bernabeu.

Meanwhile, Bayern Munich are rated as having the best chance of reaching the last-eight after their 3-0 victory at Stamford Bridge - it’s greater than 99% they will eliminate Chelsea.

Behind them, Liverpool may only have a 54% chance of reaching the quarter-final after their first-leg loss to Atleti, but they've got 22% of making their third consecutive Champions League final.

At the other end of the spectrum, Valencia, Chelsea, Napoli, Tottenham and Lyon have got next to no chance of winning the competition this season.

We'll soon find out whether the calculations are correct when the second legs roll back around in a couple of weeks.

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